The economy of the Wenchuan earthquake without immediate worries you will lose

Recently, unfortunately in Wenchuan County, Sichuan province earthquake occurred, causing major casualties and property damage, once again hit China's social and economical operation. Because of the Wenchuan earthquake is not yet entirely calmed down, on the earthquake of direct and indirect economic losses have not arrived, so its effects for the economy of exact also difficult to grasp. However, from the earthquake on the macroeconomic effects of indirectly, it is undeniable that will allow increasing the difficulty of the current regulation. On the one hand, in the reconstruction process, will inevitably increase infrastructure investment, in the short term may pull the fixed asset investment growth and bring elements of raw material price increases, the formation of new PPI and CPI rising power. On the other hand, it is the food in Sichuan province, to hit on this year's food supplies caused a greater impact, is likely to further increase the pressure on food prices. At the same time, temporarily blocked, it will also make the price of food and other necessities in the affected area is short term lift. Of course, on the whole, the geographical and population, epicenter Wenchuan involves economy is relatively small, only a few belonging to mountainous areas, and the agricultural production of the factory. The Sichuan province of China's GDP output 3.9%, production in occupies only 2.5% nationwide, in Sichuan province, the impact of the earthquake disaster is very limited. Thus, as long as since then, the duration and scope of the disaster is no longer expanded, Wenchuan earthquake for manufacturing and import and export of limited impact on China's economy overall impact is overestimated. In this context, it is expected that the earthquake did not cause the macroeconomic policies have a significant change, but also continued the policy of some since the snowstorm. On the one hand, this earthquake, tight monetary policy is likely to be more "open" and allow the Central vent to anti-inflationary monetary policy choices facing more conflicts and difficulties. Should not be overlooked that, due to fears of disasters, as well as confidence of amplification of the Wenchuan earthquake can cause further warming inflation expectations, which makes monetary policy stability expected increase of pressure. On the other hand, since the beginning of the year, academia and Government in a lot of people are urged to strengthen fiscal policy efforts to protect the economic regulation of realization of the "soft landing". Wenchuan earthquake happened again on the urgency of the financial policy reflected, because neither the victims in life assurance or post-disaster reconstruction, requires a significant amount of financial funds for support. With this opportunity, fiscal policy is also expected in Marco play a more important role. History, from the 1998 floods, of SARS in 2003, this year's snowstorm and earthquake, major disasters moment plaguing the health of the Chinese economic and social development. It should be said that our country's vast natural complex, many kinds of disasters, occur frequently in each of the disaster caused by the direct economic losses amounting to billions of dollars. We know that in order to attenuate the impact of disasters on social and economic disaster in the last century to establish and develop, and become a Western countries build disaster response mechanism. In China, the Government by administrative means mobilization has certain advantages in terms of disaster response, but still lacks a system of disaster economics and policy system. Only in this breakthrough to promote scientific and technological capacity and providing disaster relief, truly became a market economy system preventing disaster science investment system and management mechanisms to minimize losses.