Monday, December 20, 2010

Telecom operators dilemma: death or die?

Keyword: fixed-line telecom operators for fixed operators

"Mobile-fixed network failure" is not only inconsistent with the original intention of the reform of the telecom industry, as well as with the essence of telecom competition, does not meet the requirements of the scientific concept of development. However, the current Chinese telecom industry must face this reality. Four operators in the latest operational data show that in October, China Mobile to add new users, users total 660 million reached 3.56 million; an increase of Unicom monthly 149 million users; the two largest fixed network operator continued negative growth, which, at the end of China Telecom a net reduction of 88 million, three consecutive months; and China Netcom users loss compared to the local users also reduces 37 million, continued downturn in 4 months. The number of users increase fixed reduction has already moved no longer news, but the essence through imagery look, maybe all those interested in the development of telecom industry will ask: is it fixed really can only continue to be the victim of a mobile alternative, we really helpless?

Fixed vs mobile: effective competition in the telecommunications market to sustain

In specialized mode, China Telecom, China Netcom business fixed line, China Mobile, China Unicom operator mobile network, fixed network and mobile form equal competition, which is an ideal competition, but this pattern has been broken, and the two sides of the balance of forces between the more and more poor.

From a technical perspective, in the same voice market, the convenience of mobile technology for mobile operators advantages fully. In the advanced technology and backward technology contest, the former natural advantage, the market rules.

From the tariff level, move fast down resulting in charges for fixed-line operator pressure doubled. 27 April, the Ministry of information industry and the development and Reform Commission decision and joint action to promote mobile phone tariff level even lower, this user is a Gospel, but to the fixed network operators, but it is a huge blow. As Dean of the Faculty of Economics of Beijing's supervising function during said, "now is China Mobile's dominance, he was ready to drop, the problem is not down, Unicom Netcom downgraded. "In the current market structure is not adjusted, as mobile one-way toll collection full implementation and rapid reduction in roaming fees, our many local mobile tariff has been basically flat with the fixed fee, and some have even been lower than the fixed price, which makes the move to alternative fixed-line business, fixed network traffic further exacerbated, voice services revenues were negative growth.

As the saying goes "boss-eat", due to technological advances and market demand and control policies, and many other factors, move to the "snowball", fixed shrinking, if measures are not taken, unchecked, effective competition between the two will talk.

Fixed deadlock: death or die?

Fixed network and mobile competitive imbalance caused by the most direct damage is the fixed-line operators. In recent years, two fixed-line operators although through the implementation of the restructuring, accelerate the development of broadband Internet access, value-added and integrated information services, partially made up for the voice service of damage caused by the loss, but from a practical effect, or difficult to effectively promote the growth of economic efficiency of enterprises. From operational data, as of the end of September, in the telecom business revenue 1312.2 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%, in contrast to move in the same period, operating income was $ 2584.65 billion, an increase of 21.5%, which was an increase of nearly 8 times the difference.

From the data seems to see what is terrible, but truly frightening is the resulting competitive mentality of imbalance. Market rumors, China Mobile's "squeeze", two fixed-line operator staff carry a huge psychological burden: trying to work on financial ratio but move, research and development funding, marketing costs, etc. are less mobile, and fixed price of space itself is very limited, even if it is just as hard, can only be input cost more die faster; if you do not do it, just wait to die, but watching mobile implementation on fixed user, business, and business income of comprehensive alternative, but also carry a variety of operating costs ... Fixed network operators face the "death" and "die" dilemma.

"Mourning the death of big than the heart. "This may be the current two fixed network operators a true portrayal of employees.

8000 billion state face devaluation: afire to hand

Telecom market imbalance if you continue, the damage will be the national interest. It is understood that in fixed telephony investments accounted for the telecommunications industry, State-owned assets of more than 60%, as high as 8000 billion. And fixed network operators 8000 billion assets in more than 60% is used primarily for carrying voice service, that is to say approximately 5000 billion was the State-owned assets will face a major devaluation due to mobile substitution.

This is not an alarmist. Mobile alternative fixed-line speed too fast, "move down the weak" phenomenon too prominent, unsustainable sustainable development not only of the telecom industry, but also allows fixed network of fixed asset depreciation due excessively and caused a huge waste of the State-owned assets. This is obviously not what we want to see. However, according to the experts forecast, probably in the first half of next year, fixed-line operators will fall into a net increase of user comprehensive telephone recorded negative growth, voice service revenues and profits for the substantial decrease in risk. By that time, people are worried about the situation fully.

The beginning of the year, the Ministry of information industry, published in 2007, the telecommunications industry, focusing on the six tasks, to timely promote basic telecom operators the whole business, and to develop as an opportunity to 3G optimize the telecom market competition. 2007 is past, hope to find a solution as soon as possible about the sector and to curb further deterioration of telecommunication market imbalances.

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