The new year is expected to implement 500 billion tax cut plan

Keyword: tax cuts, economic policy

Just in from the outside, Morgan recently thrown "trillion economic stimulus package," have great spits, one with similar and very useful message yesterday rapidly in the market.

Alleged: Ministry of Finance has developed concerning 1500 billion tax cut the size of the new VAT scheme, and has been submitted to the State Council.

"If there is no accident that the new programme will be scheduled for January 1, 2009 to implement".

The Ministry of finance expert: is necessary for the implementation of tax cuts

Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance of a specialist in this interview, and the above statements related to the exact message is not known, but he said that at the moment, finance and tax departments implement such relief programmes is necessary.

Ministry of Finance of the well-known expert opinion, the central decision-making body of the end of August "guarantee an accused of" new thinking, actually regulating has revealed the Government obviously aware of the current economic downside risks, and has begun to implement "guarantee growth" to do more work. And the relevant ministries and timely action is a question of faith.

Many ministries exerting force against downside risk

This reporter has learned that the tariff Commission of the State Council has decided that since 1 September until the end of nitrogen fertilizer and ammonia special export tariffs to 150%; in addition, from 1 October this year to the end of the year, other chemical fertilizer and fertilizer materials will continue to charge 100% of the special export tariffs.

The Ministry of finance and tax expert interpretation of the above said, the Government this time on domestic shortage of resources, energy-consuming products and international advantage products imposed customs duties, on the one hand, the maintenance of the healthy development of the domestic industry, on the other hand also needs a stimulus to domestic economic growth dynamics.

That is, yesterday, the Bank issued a public notice that should guide the monetary and credit growth, optimize credit reasonable structure, increase the "three rural" and small enterprises, post-disaster reconstruction of credit support for financial institutions to ensure that new credit resources to "three rural" and small enterprises, and post-disaster reconstruction.

Central Bank pointed out, to increase the financing of small-enterprise development. Specifically, the strengthening of financial institutions, and strive to make the boot 2008 small enterprise credit investing growth rate is not lower than the growth rate of the loan, the increment is not lower than in 2007; encourage financial institutions to small enterprise credit product innovation and trade financing instruments; build a multi-level system of small business financing; expand the channels of direct financing of small enterprises; specification guide private capital into the small enterprise finance market; in addition, speed up the credit system and guarantee system, improve the small business financing environment.

At JP Morgan Securities (Asia) co., Ltd Managing Director Gong party-it seems that, at the moment China economic growth appears obvious landslide, official policies need to alleviate the tax burden for SMEs, the adjustment of the export tax rebate as new adjustment direction, thereby solved now small and medium-sized enterprises and export-oriented enterprises.

The same is good for small and medium-sized enterprises granted one of the new policy is: State Treasury, national development and Reform Commission, the State was in mid-August a joint circular, from 1 September at the national stop collecting individually and bazaars to management fees.

To this end, the State Ministry of Commerce Institute Dr. Mei Xinyu gave a positive evaluation. He also believes that the economic environment in China after the Olympics will further cooling, coupled with China's economic growth itself appeared more obvious signs of decline, the present national multiple ministries have slapped, the objective is to prevent excessive economic slowdown.

Three driving growth slowdown in the cab at the same time

From recent objective factors, since the Olympic Games held resulting in Beijing, Tianjin and other urban part production suspended; during the Olympic Games, the national majority of consumers to sit in front of the watching races, and forced to travel, buy a House and other consumption further into recession.

"However, the current macro-economic slowdown, to far more than the Olympic factor slowing down the one-time. "In the CICC's men expert opinion, must be strictly observed: at present, China has three driving growth slowdown in the cab at the same time. "International economic growth this year and next year is expected to remain weak, vulnerable Chinese export growth will continue through 2009. ”

Associated credit from Switzerland, has just completed an enterprise survey, 60% of the respondents think that the current economic slowdown, including automotive, real estate and telecommunications industry respondents answer particularly pessimistic. The Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta economic decline very obvious??? And all this has nothing to do with the Olympic Games.

More worrying is that nearly half of the respondents believed that, when can the economy improves, visibility is not high. Business sector for economic prospects feel uncertainty, are historically very rare. "Despite the current Olympic factor disappears, but rebounded a sluggish economic growth. ”

Citigroup Asia-Pacific Chief Economist Huang Yi-ping of the same opinion: China's economic slowdown risks are increasing. He believes that "the momentum of China's economic slowdown in the short term, it is difficult to reverse. ”

Huang Yi-ping told reporters, on the one hand, China's export and investment have obvious cooling, in particular with the stock and housing prices, the consumer is likely weakening trend continues to spread; on the other hand, the past year, the continued tightening of monetary policy, in particular, higher interest rates and credit tightening, already pose a significant economic activity of enterprises; third, because of the industrial enterprises of profit growth has spearheaded emerge significantly down, this will affect their next investment activities. In addition, the United States and the economic recession, will also further drag down the Chinese economic growth.

According to informed sources, the end of August Crown "guarantee an accused of" new ideas for a few days of the regulation, official economic think tanks have gathered to discuss regulation in Beidaihe. While at this Conference, think tanks have "agreed that economic downturn than the terrible inflation rate", and that the current domestic economic growth is not optimistic.

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The Ministry of Finance of the expert analysis yesterday interview also believes that the slowdown in foreign demand and the Olympic factor has been, and will continue to make economic activity continued to weaken, "maintain moderate economic growth is very important." He said, "based on such considerations, on fiscal policy, taxes and increase the intensity of the possibility of infrastructure. ”

The future may be expanded throughout the credit scale

Department of State Development Research Center of the macro in the interview, a researcher at the Ms Helen believes that the current domestic demand growth has stabilized, supply and demand balance of the total relationship in General. But in the center of finance, Deputy Director of bashusong, "currently, the only consumer demand expansion faster, it will be possible to create more time and space to be reduced external demand for economic growth. ”

For the "bashusong consumer demand expanding fast enough," judgement of the Economic Research Institute, Chinese Academy of social sciences research fellow Ming Yuan steel. Yuan steel out straight: China's economy is now one of the most critical to expanding domestic demand, "in economic growth slipped in the background, if the demand does not go on, there is no driving force for economic development. "He went on to suggest that the State should in tax and social security to those areas inclined, stimulating domestic demand.

"If China is to establish huge consumption drive economic growth, this is the most deadly. "Bashusong believes that official policy should give the domestic demand driven up, this is one of promoting economic development is key. "In economic restructuring at the same time, the focus of the development of extended to domestic consumption, and thus produce a virtuous cycle of its own, this is one of the more mature economies. ”

DRC macroeconomic research Minister Yu bin, told reporters, maintain national economy to reach 10% of the growth, the need to adopt a series of macro-economic policy adjustment, including stimulating domestic demand, while this year's CPI control at 7%.

JP Morgan Securities market Department Chairman Li Jing also indicated that, as the economic slowdown, the Government's primary task is toward maintaining growth and employment, slant; in addition, finance and tax departments should implement year more aggressive fiscal policy, so as to domestic export industries and small and medium-sized enterprises to provide more effective support.

In addition, the interviewed experts expect that in the next few months, monetary policy will not only relax SME lending policy, whole loan size may expand, "the reserve ratio is likely to reduce the interest rate is already peaked", while the Yuan may appear for a period of sustained slight depreciation.